Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2021 compared with January 1, 2020 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 6,055 versus 12,141 last year – down 50.1% – and down 18.0% from 7,388 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 9,788 versus 17,577 last year – down 44.3% – and down 21.6% compared with 12,481 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,135 versus 4,662 last year – up 31.6% – but down 16.5% from 7,347 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,868 versus 7,539 last year – up 30.9% – but down 20.7% from 12,440 last month
- Monthly Sales: 9,989 versus 7,788 last year – up 28.3% – and up 8.9% from 9,175 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $211.62 versus $179.97 last year – up 17.6% – and up 1.8% from $207.84 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $332,000 versus $289,500 last year – up 14.7% – and up 0.6% from $330,000 last month
Due to the huge imbalance between supply & demand, we can expect to see prices move even higher over the next 12-15 months with appreciation rates possibly rising over 20%.
The rise in mortgage delinquencies will have little effect on rising prices. The level of delinquency is nowhere close to the ’06-’08 crisis, and it has improved for the last 6 consecutive months.
With the current housing demand, few homes with delinquent loans will actually reach foreclosure. They can be quickly sold to pay off any loans, and with record levels of equity, the vast majority of sellers will be left in the black.
In 2007, prices crumbled due to massive excess supply. Many homes went underwater quickly, and homeowners could see no advantage in avoiding foreclosure. The current situation is opposite, not similar.
January is typically the strongest month of the year for new listings. If we are going to see any relief for buyers, it should arrive within the next 4 weeks.
Questions? Consider me your resource for all things Arizona real estate! Call me if you’ve been on the fence about buying/selling, or if you have any questions about the current state of the market.
Data sourced from The Cromford Report